The world will overshoot the 1.5°C climate limit, but deep and fast emission cuts can still bring temperatures back below that threshold by the end of the century, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) says in its new UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026. The report, titled The Point of Return and published on Wednesday 21 October 2026, sets out what it calls the “lowest possible” overshoot path ahead of the COP31 climate conference in Antalya, Türkiye, next month.
Under that path, peak warming around mid-century would be limited to between 1.7°C and 1.8°C, before falling back to 1.5°C by 2100. Achieving it requires cutting global greenhouse gas emissions by 18 per cent by 2030, 45 per cent by 2035 and 69 per cent by 2040, compared with 2025 levels, according to UNEP.
UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026: overshoot is not surrender
“Overshoot is not surrender,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a message accompanying the report. “We can still keep it as small and as short as possible — and bring temperatures back below 1.5 degrees by the end of the century.”
UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen warned that every extra fraction of a degree, and every extra year above 1.5°C, increases climate impacts and risks, including the deadly floods, heatwaves and wildfires seen in many countries this year. “We must pull out all the stops to minimize peak warming and return to 1.5°C by the end of the century,” she said, adding that this remains possible.
The report argues that there are more opportunities than ever to step up climate action. Since the 2015 Paris Agreement set the 1.5°C goal, renewable energy has boomed, growth in total energy supply from coal and oil has slowed compared with earlier projections, and climate policies have cut emissions in many places.
What happens without stronger climate action
If current policies continue, warming could reach 2.8°C within this century and increase thereafter, the report warns. Even if all national climate action plans, known as NDCs, are fully delivered and similar efforts continue, warming would still be limited only to 2.6°C.
These outcomes are worse than last year’s projections, according to UNEP, partly because of the United States withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and partly because of revised estimates of historical emissions. New NDCs submitted since the last emissions report have hardly made a difference, the report finds: full implementation of current pledges would deliver emission cuts of only 5 to 8 per cent by 2030 and 11 to 15 per cent by 2035.
Global emissions have risen by 0.8 per cent a year on average over the past decade, UNEP notes. Emissions in 2025 were roughly the same as in 2024, but the report says it is too early to conclude that they have peaked.
The action the report calls for
The report calls for accelerating the goals agreed at the first-ever Global Stocktake, the process held from 2021 to 2023 to assess collective progress under the Paris Agreement. Those goals include tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling the annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030, shifting away from fossil fuels in energy systems, reducing non-CO2 emissions, and halting and reversing deforestation and forest degradation. Progress across most of these goals remains insufficient, UNEP says.
For the fossil-fuel transition alone, the report sets benchmarks: compared with 2025 figures, the share of coal, oil and gas in total energy supply would need to fall by at least 55, 15 and 5 per cent respectively by 2035, and by at least 75, 30 and 35 per cent by 2040.
The second Global Stocktake begins next month at COP31 in Antalya, and UNEP says it can build on the first stocktake by reaffirming priority mitigation areas, extending quantified goals to 2035 and 2040, and making existing action areas more tangible through clearer, quantified targets.
For readers following the road to Antalya, Watan News earlier reported on COP31 climate finance and the defence-spending debate in COP31 climate spending and defence.
Key facts
- Report: UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026, The Point of Return, published 21 October 2026.
- Lowest possible overshoot: peak warming 1.7–1.8°C around mid-century, returning to 1.5°C by 2100.
- Required emission cuts vs 2025: 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035, 69% by 2040; net-zero CO2 around 2050.
- Current policies: warming of 2.8°C this century; full NDC delivery: 2.6°C.
- Next step: second Global Stocktake at COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye, in November 2026.
Conclusion
The message of the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026 is deliberately two-sided: the 1.5°C limit will be breached, but the size and length of that breach are still a matter of choice. The report’s benchmarks give governments heading to COP31 a measurable test — whether their new pledges close the gap toward 18 per cent cuts by 2030, or leave the world on the 2.8°C path.
