The United Nations has warned that the current El Niño event is “being supersized before our eyes”, with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) cautioning it could become the strongest ever recorded and intensify extreme weather into 2027.
FAKTA
- The WMO’s updated forecast was released in Geneva on 3 September 2026.
- El Niño has a near-100% likelihood of persisting through February 2027.
- Sea surface temperatures in key Pacific monitoring regions are more than 2°C above average, with subsurface temperatures exceeding norms by more than 8°C in some areas.
- The event is one of just four classified in the top “very strong” bracket since records began in 1950.
- Central America’s Dry Corridor is already facing a severe food crisis linked to the event.
An El Niño Event ‘Off the Charts’
Speaking in Geneva, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said: “If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began. So literally off the charts.”
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said: “El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up.”
A supersized El Niño event is fuelling more powerful storms across the Pacific.
Why Scientists Are Alarmed
El Niño occurs every two to seven years and tends to last up to 12 months, causing intense rains and droughts across Latin America. A very strong El Niño, however, shifts rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide and fuels extreme weather such as droughts and typhoons.
While it is naturally occurring and not directly linked to fossil-fuel-driven climate change, scientists say warmer ocean temperatures are intensifying it — and when combined with background warming trends, 2027 could become the warmest year on record.
The Food Crisis Is Already Here
The El Niño event has already had an impact on soft commodities in tropical areas, causing a severe food crisis across Central America’s Dry Corridor. Saulo warned the phenomenon “has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world”.
Flooding is among the expected impacts as the El Niño event strengthens.
Preparing for Extreme Weather
The WMO is undertaking a major mobilisation to circulate forecasts of potential extreme weather linked to El Niño to as many communities as possible. Governments are strengthening early warning systems and deploying pre-emptive medical assistance.
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Sources: Reuters / BusinessWorld; Reuters / WNCY.
